I thought I’d start today’s blogpost with some actuarial figures.  Taking a very conservative actuarial assessment (not accounting for the previous medical history of McCain, the difficulty of the job of president, et al.) there is a 15.4% chance that Palin will become the next president.  That’s approximately 1 in 6, and if you add in McCain’s health issues, the numbers get much closer to 1 in 4 - a 25% chance that he will die in the next four years.  Thus, I’m going with the average number of 1 in 5.

Actuarial tables are extremely accurate - that’s how insurance companies make their money, by predicting precisely when people die.

This Salon article also carries the interesting statement:

Even a member of McCain and Palin’s own party, Senator Chuck Hagel, has said of Governor Palin, “I think it’s a stretch to, in any way, to say that she’s got the experience to be president of the United States.”

Zakaria thinks it is time for Palin to step down in his Newsweek article.   He also cites the actuarial tables.  And I think he’s right on the money.  It isn’t so much that she doesn’t have answers.  No one is going to have answers for everything, and that is why the president surrounds him/herself with quality advisors.  However, Zakaria brings it right on point: Palin doesn’t even understand the question!

Some might say - well, so what?  Palin isn’t very good, but she can’t harm much.  But Zakaria brings up other good points about what the next president faces:

The next administration is going to face a set of challenges unlike any in recent memory. There is an ongoing military operation in Iraq that still costs $10 billion a month, a war against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan that is not going well and is not easily fixed. Iran, Russia and Venezuela present tough strategic challenges.

Domestically, the bailout and reform of the financial industry will take years and hundreds of billions of dollars. Health-care costs, unless curtailed, will bankrupt the federal government. Social Security, immigration, collapsing infrastructure and education are all going to get much worse if they are not handled soon.

And the American government is stretched to the limit. Between the Bush tax cuts, homeland-security needs, Iraq, Afghanistan and the bailout, the budget is looking bleak. Plus, within a few years, the retirement of the baby boomers begins with its massive and rising costs (in the trillions).

All of these things are true - this isn’t just another four years.  We are at the crux of major changes and decisions.  It’s time to acknowledge that with responsible choices.

Palin is too much in the media.  I promise that unless she does something of major stupidity, I won’t harp on her as much as I have been.  But she scares me.